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ARR waterfall. Board-ready bridge.

Start, new, expansion, contraction, churn, end. The single chart every SaaS board asks for.

Inputs ($)

Waterfall

Start ARR$2,400,000
+ New$380,000
+ Expansion$150,000
− Contraction$45,000
− Churn$120,000
End ARR$2,765,000

Net new ARR

$365,000

period total

Growth

15.2%

vs start

NRR

99.4%

incl. expansion

GRR

93.1%

excl. expansion

Benchmark

Leaky bucket

NRR below 100% (99.4%) — net contraction. Fix retention before scaling acquisition.

Expansion happens when CSMs see usage signals early. Catch before they bounce surfaces account behaviour that predicts upgrades. Catch before they bounce scores every website visitor by intent so your team focuses on the ones likely to buy. Try it free →

How it works.

end_arr = start + new + expansion − contraction − churn · nrr = (start + expansion − contraction − churn) / start

Track NRR and GRR separately. NRR includes expansion magic; GRR strips it out to show true retention. Both numbers belong in board decks.

FAQ.

What is an ARR waterfall?+

A bridge that shows how starting ARR became ending ARR across a period: + New + Expansion − Contraction − Churn = Ending. Every SaaS board deck has one.

What's net new ARR?+

Net new = New + Expansion − Contraction − Churn. The single most-watched SaaS growth metric — it captures every dollar movement in one number.

Healthy NRR for SaaS?+

NRR (Net Revenue Retention) = (start ARR + expansion − contraction − churn) / start ARR. 110%+ is best-in-class. 100%+ means expansion offsets churn. <90% is a leaky bucket.

Gross retention vs net retention?+

Gross = (start − contraction − churn) / start. Strips out expansion. Best signal for product-fit health. NRR can hide churn behind expansion; GRR can't.

How often should I report ARR waterfall?+

Monthly internally, quarterly to board. Don't wait for quarterly — monthly cadence catches churn spikes early when they're still cheap to fix.

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